Every three years, the Census Bureau, along with the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, refreshes a study that forecasts job trends over the next ten years. The latest study was published back in January 2015; analyzing the job market in 2012, and making projections through the year 2022.
In this article, we're going to start with a brief explanation of the study's' origin. Then we'll quickly slice and dice the data, identifying the hot job trends over the next decade. This summary data will not only include those sectors of the job market that are growing, but those jobs that are on the decline too.
The latest version of the Occupational Outlook Handbook was released on January 30, 2015. This study is actually a composite of information gathered from three sources:
We're going to split the results of these studies into two parts. In this article, we're going to run through what might be called "hot jobs." That will include fast growing jobs, calculated as both new jobs created as well as openings. In part two, we'll dive a bit deeper into requirements in terms of both work experience and education.
The discussion of this job growth data is going to be further divided into two categories. In this first category, we'll start by talking about those professions expected to grow rapidly over the next ten years. Then we'll talk about those jobs that are expected to decline, or contract, over time.
|Occupation||Thousands Of Jobs|
|Personal Care Aides||580.8|
|Home Health Aides||424.2|
|Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food||421.9|
|Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive||307.8|
|Customer Service Representatives||298.7|
|Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners||280.0|
The above table tells us how many new jobs will be created from 2012 through 2022. For example, the study is projecting 580,800 new jobs for personal care aids. It's interesting to note three of the top four spots belong to the healthcare industry: personal care aids, registered nurses, and home health aides.
|Occupation||Thousands Of Openings|
|Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food||1,555.7|
|Waiters and Waitresses||1,268.3|
|Customer Service Representatives||941.6|
|Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand||922.5|
|Office Clerks, General||810.9|
|Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners||717.3|
|Personal Care Aides||666.0|
Openings created are different than growth in jobs. Openings created also include information on turnover. For example, we know from the first table of data these studies are forecasting 434,700 new retail jobs. In this second table appears a projection of 1,955,700 openings created. This means there are 1,521,000 retail salesperson jobs created due to turnover. These openings are created because someone left their job.
|Occupation||Increase over 10 Years|
|Personal Care Aides||48.8%|
|Home Health Aides||48.5%|
|Insulation Workers, Mechanical||46.7%|
|Interpreters and Translators||46.1%|
|Diagnostic Medical Sonographers||46%|
|Helpers: Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters||43.0%|
|Occupational Therapy Assistants||42.6%|
|Physical Therapist Assistants||41.0%|
Another way to look at job growth is the percentage increase in the number of jobs over time. For example, these studies are projecting 424,200 new home health aide jobs, and the above table tells us that's an increase of 48.5% from 2012 through 2022. Once again, the top positions are dominated by workers in the healthcare industry.
While it's certainly interesting to know the jobs that will be in high demand over the next decade, it's equally important to understand which jobs are contracting.
|Occupation||Thousands Of Jobs|
|Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers||-179.9|
|Postal Service Mail Carriers||-79.2|
|Data Entry Keyers||-54.2|
|Sewing Machine Operators||-41.7|
|Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators||-38.6|
|Word Processors and Typists||-26.2|
|Postal Service Clerks||-21.3|
|Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic||-19.2|
|Door-To-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers||-14.2|
The above list does not bode well for United States Postal System workers. Here we see a total loss of 139,100 jobs, including postal service workers, mail sorters, processors, processing machine operators, mail carriers and postal service clerks.
|Occupation||Decrease over 10 Years|
|Fallers (Cuts Down Trees)||-43.3%|
|Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders||-35.3%|
|Postal Service Clerks||-31.8%|
|Log Graders and Scalers||-31.6%|
|Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators||-29.8%|
|Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders||-27.1%|
|Postal Service Mail Carriers||-26.8%|
|Motion Picture Projectionists||-26.5%|
The table above tells us workers in the textile and shoe industry will also experience a steep decline in jobs. This information is stated as a percentage of the total workforce; meaning over 35% of shoe machine operator jobs is expected to disappear over the next decade. There are also significant decreases in textile cutting, motion picture and semiconductor workers.
The patterns in the above tables of information are clear. Over the next ten years, more healthcare practitioners will be needed to help an aging population in the United States. We're also going to see greater demand for workers in the construction trades. These craft workers will likely be needed to rebuild America's aging infrastructure.
Email continues to take its toll on the post office, with a significant decline in a variety of positions providing postal services. Finally, inexpensive overseas labor continues to chip away at the shoe, leather, and textile industries.
About the Author - Hot Jobs in 2015 - (Last Reviewed on March 16, 2016)